Yet another stellar YouGov subsample for the SNP, as Labour brace for a return to the wilderness

I'm on the move again today, and I've just attempted to make a 'location' video giving you the latest YouGov results, but I've chickened out of using it, it was a bit ridiculous.  So here instead are the numbers in good old glorious texticolor...

GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov):

Reform UK 28% (-)

Labour 21% (-)

Conservatives 18% (+1)

Liberal Democrats 15 (-1)

Greens 10% (-)

SNP 3% (-)

Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

Scottish subsample: SNP 38%, Reform UK 19%, Labour 16%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Conservatives 10%, Greens 3%

That's yet another stellar result for the SNP, and although Labour are several points higher than last week, that's not a genuine recovery, it's just sampling variation caused by the huge margin of error.  The more subsamples that show Labour well below 20%, the more likely that's where they actually are, which is a catastrophic position for them to be in.

There's been a commenter on this blog who keeps reacting to these subsamples by saying things like "another disaster for the Greens, they're on course for wipeout next year", but that's not really the case.  The subsamples are specifically about Westminster voting intentions, and there's no reason to doubt that the Greens are still polling much higher on the Holyrood regional list, which is where their true strength lies.

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SCOT GOES POP FUNDRAISER: I'm currently seeking an alternative funding model to keep Scot Goes Pop viable for the future.  Plan A is to turn it into a video blog (although there might be exceptions to that over the coming days because I may be on buses and trains quite a bit), and if that doesn't work Plan B is to move across to Substack or something similar.  However, it's probably going to take several months before I even begin to find out whether Plan A is workable as a funding model, and during that lengthy transitional period I desperately need to get the current fundraiser as close as possible to 100% funded just to keep the show on the road. It's currently 70% funded.  Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.  For anyone who would like to donate (and remember small contributions are just as valuable as larger ones), card donations can be made HERE, or if you prefer, direct donations by PayPal are also an option.  My PayPal email address is:   jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk 

I know a small number of people prefer direct bank transfers, so if you'd like to do that, just drop me a line at my contact email address and I'll send you the necessary details.  My contact address is different from my PayPal address and can be found on my Twitter or BlueSky profiles.

If the SNP conference is to be denied the chance to consider the "rebel" motion, then John Swinney's plan must either be defeated or amended to remove the harm from it

I was asked by a commenter on an earlier thread what I think of Robin McAlpine's new piece claiming that the "rebel" motion, proposed as an alternative to John Swinney's heavily-criticised strategy for winning independence, has been rejected behind closed doors and will not even reach the floor of the SNP conference.  If true, this is not a major surprise, because a source had briefed the press weeks ago that it would all play out this way.  I obviously agree with Robin that it's hopelessly inconsistent with the principle of internal party democracy - and incidentally it's also inconsistent with the logic of even bringing the Swinney plan to a conference vote in the first place, because if the leadership's attitude is that "John has chosen his strategy and he must be allowed to lead", then why not drop the pretence of a democratic process and just impose the strategy by diktat?

As I've rehearsed at length previously, I also take the same view as Robin that the Swinney plan is unworkable and seemingly designed to fail, because the outright SNP majority that is being proposed as the threshold for a mandate for an independence referendum is utterly unachievable.  But where I part company with Robin is in his assessment that all of this means that the SNP have become "an irrelevance".  That clearly makes no sense in relation to a party which forms the government of Scotland and looks set to be re-elected for another five years of power next May.  It's also a nonsense in a world where there is no credible alternative to the SNP as the vehicle for winning independence.  Alba squandered any chance of being a viable alternative by turning itself, grotesquely as a form of conscious choice, into a Stalinist freak-show.  And the only minor-party alternative to Alba is the "Liberate Scotland" alliance, which is roughly one-third composed of a far-right party which wants to do a Belarus by withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights, to ban *all* economic migration, and to determine the citizenship of an independent Scotland on ethnic grounds.  Er, no thanks.

So the SNP remain the only game in town, and we just have to work from within to try to improve the situation somehow.  If the rebel motion doesn't make the conference floor, the next best outcome is to radically amend the Swinney motion so that it closely resembles the rebel motion.  If that's not possible, the next best outcome is to defeat the Swinney motion altogether.  And if it's not realistic to do that, the very least that needs to happen is for the motion to be amended to remove the most harmful stuff from it.  As I've said before, no plan at all would almost be better than the Swinney plan, which would leave us in a worse place than ever before by setting a precedent of the SNP going into an election essentially agreeing with the UK government that no referendum should occur until some sort of ludicrously unattainable threshold is reached.  That could make it impossible to achieve independence for literally decades to come.  The voting system simply isn't designed to produce single-party majorities.

In the words of Hippocrates, "first do no harm".  If the best that can be achieved at conference is to ditch the single-party majority target and replace it with a multi-party majority for securing a mandate for a referendum, I would consider that a win of sorts. It would still mean that the 2026 election is a dead end for winning independence (what we really need to do is use the election to seek an outright mandate for independence itself, not for a referendum), but at least we'd be avoiding the self-inflicted wound of setting a disastrous precedent.

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SCOT GOES POP FUNDRAISER: I'm currently seeking an alternative funding model to keep Scot Goes Pop viable for the future.  Plan A is to turn it into a video blog (although there might be exceptions to that over the coming days because I may be on buses and trains quite a bit), and if that doesn't work Plan B is to move across to Substack or something similar.  However, it's probably going to take several months before I even begin to find out whether Plan A is workable as a funding model, and during that lengthy transitional period I desperately need to get the current fundraiser as close as possible to 100% funded just to keep the show on the road. It's currently 70% funded.  Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.  For anyone who would like to donate (and remember small contributions are just as valuable as larger ones), card donations can be made HERE, or if you prefer, direct donations by PayPal are also an option.  My PayPal email address is:   jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk 

I know a small number of people prefer direct bank transfers, so if you'd like to do that, just drop me a line at my contact email address and I'll send you the necessary details.  My contact address is different from my PayPal address and can be found on my Twitter or BlueSky profiles.

A review of the first three weeks of Scot Goes Pop as a video blog: how is it panning out so far?

As it looks like there aren't going to be any polls this weekend (meaning there have been no full-scale Scottish polls for two whole months - we're really not being well-served), I thought this might be a good moment to draw breath and look back at how the experiment of turning Scot Goes Pop into a video blog has gone over its first three weeks.  To recap briefly on why I've chosen to go down this road, I finally accepted a few weeks ago what in truth has been staring me in the face since 2021 - that traditional blogging just isn't sustainable anymore because the annual fundraisers have been consistently falling short of their target figures.  It's true that I've just about managed to stay afloat over the last four years, but I've been constantly lurching from mini-crisis to mini-crisis, and as a result I've had to post literally dozens of reminders about the fundraisers every year, which a) can't be expected to save the day indefinitely, and b) just becomes embarrassingly repetitive.  (And I'm afraid that the embarrassment will have to continue for a little while yet - because even in the best-case scenario it'll take several months for any alternative funding model to start bearing fruit, and to keep the show on the road during that transitional period I'll need to get the current fundraiser as close as possible to its target figure.  It's currently 68% funded, and I'm extremely grateful to everyone who has chipped in over the last few weeks.  But the grind goes on until and unless we get to 100%!)

People have been telling me for years that conventional blogging is yesterday's medium and that the action has moved elsewhere, so it seems to me there are two potential alternative funding models that are worth giving a serious try before giving up the ghost completely - 

1) A switch to video blogging.

or

2) A switch to Substack or something similar, ie. in which at least some content is put behind a paywall.

I much prefer the first option, because the videos can be very easily embedded on the blog and everything remains freely available.  So I'm going all in for video blogging for the time being - but to even get to the point of finding out whether it's viable as an alternative funding model, I'll have to hit the minimum threshold of 1000 subscribers on YouTube.

So how is it going so far?  I've posted 21 videos over the last three weeks, and if nothing else the viewing numbers have proved that there is still a substantial appetite out there for information about opinion polls from a pro-independence perspective.  All of the most popular videos have been about polls, with the most popular one of all being 'Triumphant SNP romp to 24-point lead over Labour in epic YouGov crossbreak', which has 2252 views so far - only around 500 short of my most-watched video from the past, which was my 2021 interview of Alex Salmond.  It's also significantly higher than the number of views for recent episodes of Slanszh Media's riveting weekly YouTube show Tas Is Still Talking, even though I'll obviously never be able to match the production values of the Great Zulfikar Sheikh.

I started out audio-only while I tried to work out the best approach to video content, because investing in a proper camera a few years ago had backfired horrendously - the lighting and the focus often seemed to be all wrong, but I'd always be oblivious to that until I'd finished the recording.  I've realised that simply using a webcam is the obvious solution, because you can see how the video looks as you're actually recording.  So far, though, I've just been using our normal webcam that we use for family Zoom calls, and the picture quality is therefore adequate at best.  If anyone can recommend a reasonably affordable webcam with genuinely crisper picture quality, please let me know.

My number of YouTube subscribers has roughly doubled since three weeks ago, from around 220 to 440.  I think that's pretty solid progress, but at that pace it'll be roughly November before I reach 1000 and can even begin to find out whether video blogging is viable as a funding model.  If you'd like to help speed things up, and if you have a Google account (even if you don't use it for YouTube very often), all you'd have to do is sign in, go to my channel and hit the 'subscribe' button. I think maybe the word 'subscribe' puts off people who don't use YouTube much because it sounds like subscribing to a pay TV channel, but it's nothing like that at all - it doesn't cost a penny.  Subscribing is basically just the equivalent of following someone on social media.

On the whole, then, I'm reasonably encouraged and I think it's possible that over time I might be able to build up a YouTube channel with a decent following.  But the jury is still very much out, and until I reach 1000 subscribers I remain in limbo and will need to keep pushing the fundraiser to keep the show on the road during this prolonged transitional period.  So if anyone who hasn't donated yet has £5 or £10 burning a hole in their pocket, it would be very gratefully received.  Card donations can be made HERE, or if you prefer, direct donations by PayPal are also an option.  My PayPal email address is:   jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk 

I know a small number of people prefer direct bank transfers, so if you'd like to do that, just drop me a line at my contact email address and I'll send you the necessary details.  My contact address is different from my PayPal address and can be found on my Twitter or BlueSky profiles.

Scot Goes Pop Fundraiser 2025: Another update, and a crunch-point

Click here to go straight to the crowdfunder page.

Many thanks to everyone who has donated since the last update.  Progress has been made, although the fundraiser is still only 46% funded with less than half the year still to go.  Obviously I chose the target as the minimum I would realistically need to keep the blog viable for a year, and on the current trajectory it's likely to fall well short - which leaves me back in my now-familiar position of lurching from mini-crisis to mini-crisis and having to constantly post these updates just to try to stay afloat.

I know we've had the conversation a million times before about alternative funding models, and I have genuinely been thinking about trying something new in recent weeks.  We're forever hearing that conventional blogging is "yesterday's medium", so one thought I've been seriously toying with is moving across either in part or wholesale to video content.  If I could multiply my number of YouTube subscribers by about five and post original content extremely regularly, it might be possible to gradually start making an income that way.  In a sense it would also allow me to keep the blog going because I could very easily embed each video here.  However, one thing I've noticed is that when I do occasionally make videos (the most recent one was earlier this year), they tend to get significantly fewer views than the average number of page views for each blogpost.  That implies regular readers are highly geared towards text content rather than other media, and that to build up a YouTube channel I'd need to largely seek a new audience.  That would take time, and the problem is much more urgent than that - hence the need to make the current fundraiser work somehow, by hook or by crook.  (Well, not crook, obviously.)

The other problem is that for the moment I don't have the technical skills or equipment to make videos to a high standard.  You might remember that just for the fun of it, I switched to video content for some of my coverage of the 2019 general election, and as can be seen from this example, the content itself was fine but the technical quality was, to put it mildly, bargain-basement.  I later invested hundreds of pounds in a camera which was billed as "perfect for YouTube", but after a few videos I gave up on it in despair and went back to doing the videos on my phone, because I just couldn't seem to use it properly.  I always seemed to be slightly out of focus in the videos, or the lighting was wrong, or there were weird shadows across my face.  What can I say, I analyse polls and give my political opinions - I've never claimed to be François Truffaut.  

It's a great pity there doesn't seem to be as much call these days for genuinely audio-only content - popular podcasts usually seem to have a video version as well.  Audio content is far easier to make to a decent standard, and I do have a high-quality microphone, which I bought way back in 2016 for a livestreamed debate with Tommy Sheridan about tactical voting on the list (the more things change, the more they stay the same!).  What I might do is concentrate on audio on a transitional basis and post the files on YouTube with a still picture attached, so I can make a start on gradually building up the channel while I'm getting my head around how I can make videos of adequate quality.

In the meantime, though, I'm going to have to keep plugging away with the current fundraiser, just to keep the show on the road in any shape or form.  So if you find Scot Goes Pop useful and you have £5 or £10 to spare, please remember that small donations are just as useful as larger ones.  If 400 people all donated £10 (and there are far more than 400 people who read this blog every day), the problem would be solved overnight.

Card donations can be made at the crowdfunder page HERE.

As an alternative, direct donations by PayPal can eliminate fees altogether depending on the option you select from the menu.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Donations are also very welcome by direct bank transfer if that is your preference, although for obvious reasons I've always been advised not to post my bank details publicly.  So if you'd like to donate that way, please drop me a line and I'll send you the details directly.  My contact email address can be found on my Twitter or BlueSky profiles.

Many thanks in advance to everyone who helps Scot Goes Pop keep going in some form.

Alba's Christina Hendry has accused Nicola Sturgeon of "cowardice". Three words: pot, kettle, black.

Labour have the support of barely ONE TENTH of Scottish voters in landmark Find Out Now poll

The new GB-wide poll from Find Out Now is a genuine landmark, because it's the first poll from any firm since the general election to show Labour on less than 20% support across Britain.  But that's positively stellar compared to Labour's performance in the Scottish subsample, where they have barely one-tenth of the vote and are languishing in fifth place.  You can learn all the details in tonight's YouTube commentary, in which I've also randomly chucked in an Edinburgh Fringe recommendation for the play Devil's Point.

Watch either via the embedded player below, or at the direct YouTube link.

Anas and the Apocalypse: Labour face TOTAL WIPEOUT in Scotland as SNP run riot in history-making YouGov crossbreak

The Scottish subsample from the latest GB-wide YouGov poll is extraordinary, not just for the scale of the SNP lead, but also because it shows Labour on course to lose all of their Scottish seats at Westminster - not even Ian Murray would be left standing.  Find out all about it in today's YouTube commentary - you can watch via the embedded player below, or at the direct YouTube link.

I still believe what Alex Salmond told me in 2020 about the leaker to the Daily Record - but the independence movement desperately needs to move on

Nicola Sturgeon's new allegations about Alex Salmond are unwelcome, because as Gerry Hassan has pointed out, the Salmond-Sturgeon war is completely toxic and the independence movement desperately needs to just move on from it.  In today's YouTube commentary I recall the lengthy conversation I had with Mr Salmond in 2020 just after his acquittal, and explain why - in spite of everything that has happened since - I'm still inclined to believe what he told me about the leaker to the Daily Record, and how that is very hard to square with Ms Sturgeon's claims to honestly believe it's conceivable that Mr Salmond himself was the leaker.  I also give my reaction to Ms Sturgeon's suggestion that in 20 years' time there will be a new "British Isles confederation" involving an independent Scotland.

You can watch via the embedded player below, or at the direct YouTube link, or you can listen to an audio-only version on Soundcloud.

Eighty years on from the horrors of Nagasaki, Scotland must redouble its determination to join the international ban on nuclear weapons after independence

Today is exactly 80 years since the atomic bombing of Nagasaki - only the second use of a nuclear weapon in warfare, and also the last to date.  It self-evidently must remain the last if human civilisation is to have a realistic chance of surviving.  Today's YouTube commentary is partly prompted by TSE's wretched editorial in Stormfront Lite three days ago, which marked the 80th anniversary of the Hiroshima bombing by saying that actually the indiscrimate mass murder of tens of thousands of men, women and children, almost all from the Japanese ethnic group (let's face it - it was genocide) was totes cool because it supposedly saved more lives indirectly than it destroyed.  That's a classic example of history being written by the winning side, because there would have been none of these self-justifying logical gymnastics if the Nazis or Japan had nuked British or American cities - it would have been seen with absolute clarity as the obscene crime against humanity that it was.  If taken seriously, TSE's logic would also give present-day leaders a free pass to use nuclear weapons as a "vital life-saving tool" and to basically destroy the world in the process.

You can watch via the embedded player below, or via the direct YouTube link.

Controversial Wings blogger boasts it will be "easy" for him to DESTROY the SNP - but he's WRONG